Local air pollution forecast model

To generate representative localized air pollution forecasts, a statistical method, called Model Output Statistics (MOS), is applied which combines Hollandse Luchten (HoLu) observations and CAMS ensemble forecasts. At this time, forecasts are provided for PM2.5 measurements only, for which forecasts are generated up to 48 hours ahead. 

CAMS provides the validated, global model ensemble forecasts, on top of which HoLu data are used to “localize” the global forecasts. The localized forecasts are ideally valid on neighborhood scales, but need sometimes to be upscaled to larger scales, for example on dimensions of a village. This has to do with data gaps in the HoLu datasets. Therefore, HoLu sensors, clustered in comparable spatial/land-use zones, are combined into HoLu clusters.

The HoLu cluster data are used to generate MOS functions for each cluster and for each lead time. Finally, localized air pollution forecasts are calculated by combining MOS functions and CAMS ensemble forecasts in a two-step procedure:

  1. calculate the localized “forecast error” using the MOS function,
  2. “correct” the CAMS forecast with the “forecast error” to obtain the localized air pollution forecasts.

open source code on GitLab

See the model in action:

This forecast model is a TRL3 prototype and the data shown has experimental value. All data are indicative and have no legal value.

Citizen Science data – Hollandse Luchten

The citizen science data used by Sentinel Citizen is delivered by Waag’s Hollandse Luchten project. Hollandse Luchten is a network of citizens measuring air quality in Noord-Holland, a Dutch province. In this project citizens measure PM2.5; PM10 and NO2 through low-cost sensor devices in three different pilots in the areas of IJmond, Zaandam and Amsterdam-Noord.

Read more about Hollandse Luchten

Citizen Sensing

Citizen Sensing is a new way for citizens to use technological sensing tools to make sense of their environments and address critical environmental issues. Radioactive radiation is a naturally occurring phenomenon that permeates our environment. But in residential areas close to nuclear power plants, it is valuable for citizens to stay informed about potentially increased radiation levels. By enabling citizens to measure radioactive radiation and by visualising the results on a map, citizens can have direct insight in radiation levels.

Citizen Sensing tries to fill the gaps in official measurements of radiation with civil measurements of the surroundings. With cheap and accessible open-source sensors, radiation can be mapped throughout The Netherlands. In this way, citizen sensing can raise local issues and provide data to bring about change. Data can for example be used to start a new conversation based on a better understanding of the situation. Solutions can also be better tailored to the actual local situation.

Waag and Citizen Sensing

Sentinel Citizen is an important project within Waag’s research into citizen-driven data collection on the quality of the living environment. Earlier, Waag was part of the European research project Making Sense, that included nine pilots in Barcelona, Pristina (Kosovo) and Amsterdam. The project is highlighted in the documentary Citizen Science Revolution.

Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service

The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) provides consistent and quality-controlled information related to air pollution and health, solar energy, greenhouse gases and climate forcing, everywhere in the world. 

CAMS air quality regional services propose every day up to 3 days forecasts of nitrogen dioxide, ozone and particulate matter concentrations. They are based on an ensemble of seven chemistry-transport models and ECMWF’s highly successful Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) that is amongst the most reliable in Europe. All model results are available on the CAMS web-pages with performance indicators.

As a service of the Copernicus, the European Union’s Earth observation programme which looks at our planet and its environment for the ultimate benefit of all European citizens. Copernicus offers information services based on satellite Earth observation by ESA and EUMETSAT, in situ (non-satellite) data and modelling.